Why 2025 could be the year of the electric vehicle in developing countries

Speed down a highway outside of Beijing, China and chances are you’ll spot more cars without tailpipes than you can count.  

Or hop onto a motorcycle taxi in Kigali, Rwanda and instead of a backfiring muffler, you’ll likely hear just the hum of a battery. 

That’s because these cities, and many others across the developing world, have in recent years seen a surge in electric vehicle ownership. 

That is music to the ears of Rob de Jong, Head of the Sustainable Mobility Unit at the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). De Jong leads a landmark UNEP effort that is helping some 60-plus developing countries speed their transition to electric vehicles (EVs). 

De Jong says the shift to electric transport has a chance to transform cities around the world, helping them to reduce air pollution and rein in planet-warming greenhouse gases. We spoke with him about the society-altering potential of EVs and why he thinks 2025 is the year they finally start to go mainstream.  

You’ve said 2025 will be the year electric vehicles really start to take off in low- and middle-income countries. Why is that? 

Rob De Jong (RDJ): Simple economics. Electric vehicles are getting close to price parity with petrol and diesel vehicles. In China, for example, one can buy a standard family car for the equivalent of US$15,000, including government subsidies. That’s very accessible. Electric vehicles are already less expensive to own and operate long term. Once their sticker prices reach parity with petrol-burning vehicles, they’re going to take off.  

One well-known study found the world will introduce close to 1 billion vehicles by 2050, with many of those destined for low-and middle-income countries. Does that make the transition to electric cars especially urgent? 

RDG: Yes. This tsunami of vehicles hasn’t yet hit the developing world. Countries still have time to avoid locking themselves into all the infrastructure – including pipelines and petrol stations – that come with fossil-fuel-powered vehicles. Once that infrastructure is built, it’s very hard to walk away from.   

What are the big benefits of electric vehicles for developing countries? 

RDG: There are several. Number one, they would help reduce air pollution, which kills millions of people every year. Number two, they would allow countries to end their dependence on imported fossil fuels, which are increasingly expensive. Number three, they would support the growth of domestic renewable energy sources – like hydro and geothermal – which many countries have in abundance. Number four, if vehicles were manufactured locally, they could create a huge amount of green jobs. Finally, they would help cut down the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change.  

When many people think of electric vehicles, they think of cars. But in the developing world, the primary mode of personal transport is motorcycles and three-wheelers. A 2024 report by UNEP found less than 1 per cent of these vehicles are electric. Do you see that changing? 

RDJ: Yes. I think we're going to see in many developing countries in West Africa, East Africa and Southeast Asia a very sudden change over. Electric motorcycles are now cost competitive. They are cheaper to power, cheaper to maintain and in the not-too-distant future, they’ll be cheaper to buy.   

How long do you think that shift will take? 

RDG: It could happen shockingly fast. The moment you have a product that is clearly superior and has price parity, these societal transitions can go very, very quickly. Think of the rise of mobile phones or digital photography. It could be a matter of years.   

While sales of electric cars and motorcycles are rising quickly, these vehicles still only make up a small percentage of overall sales. What needs to happen to change that? 

RDJ: Awareness is important. In many developing countries, EVs are seen as a risky, high-tech, developed-world technology. But they’re not. They’re far simpler to make and maintain than petrol-powered vehicles. Second, countries need to standardize EV technology, like charging plugs and batteries. That is vital if the market is going to grow. Third, you need financing. This is probably the biggest one because most people and operators in low-and middle-income countries need financial support to overcome the extra upfront cost of electric vehicles. But as I said earlier, this cost difference between electric and petrol vehicles is getting smaller and will soon disappear altogether.   

Another key issue is charging infrastructure. In many developing regions charging stations are few and far between, and some places lack electricity altogether. How do you overcome that problem? 

RDJ: That is indeed a challenge but I think you’re going to see different charging models evolve. For example, in many parts of Africa battery-swapping stations are flourishing. Instead of plugging in your motorbike at a charging station, you go to a swapping station where they’ll take out your battery and replace it with a fresh one. The batteries are charged at a central location, so you don’t need charging stations everywhere. I think we’re going to see more innovations like that.  

In some places, the political winds are blowing against electric vehicles, in part because of a furious lobbying effort by the fossil fuel industry. Do you think that will delay the transition in the developing world? 

RDJ: It’s true, the powers that be, including the established petrol fuels and vehicles industries, are trying to resist. But people like me – who believe in the promise of electric vehicles – think the transition is unstoppable. Electric vehicles are winning. The train has left the station. There might be some question about how fast it will go. But it’s not coming back.