BY TODAGIA KELOLA

The unusaully hot conditions experienced around PNG and current reports of drought in the Western Province confirm that an El Nino phenomenon is imminent and the likelihood of drought in some coastal Papuan villages are very high.

That’s from the Director of the National Weather Office, Samuel Maiha who has warned that statistical forecast models from his office suggest that the chance of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) range from neutral to a moderate strength El Niño

The El Nino phenomenon, which occurs every three to five years, is caused by warmer water in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This water is warmer because as trade winds lessen or reverse their direction, winds from the west push warm surface water to the east in the direction of Fiji.

HE said in an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, El Nino represents the oceanic property in which sea surface temperatures are the main factor and Southern Oscillation refers to the atmospheric part of the relationship.

“During an ENSO event, the Southern Oscillation is reversed,” Mr Maiha said.

“Generally, when pressure is high over the Pacific Ocean, it tends to be low in the eastern Indian Ocean, and vice versa.”

Mr Maiha said according to statistics for the last three months from September, October and November, the Southern region, Mamose and parts of the Highlands provinces recorded below normal to normal rainfall while the New Guinea Islands recorded normal to above normal rainfall.

The likely impacts for the New Guinea Islands regions will be high risk of flooding, risk of land slides in deforested areas and high risk of water borne diseases.

For the Southern especially the coastal areas there is a high risk of water shortages, risk to subsistence and risk to hydro power generation.

For the Highlands and Mamose, there will be slight risks except for landslides in the Highlands.

He also forecast that Port Moresby will have some rain by Friday or Saturday.